进出口数据点评（2024年7月）：出口动能转弱，不确定性上升

Export Analysis - In July 2024, China's export amount was $300.56 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.0%, down 1.6 percentage points from June[2] - The export growth rate is significantly below market expectations of 9.5%, indicating a slowdown in export momentum[2] - The trade surplus narrowed by $14.4 billion (14.5%) month-on-month to $84.65 billion[2] - The average annual compound growth rate of exports since 2019 decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 6.3%, marking the lowest level since the beginning of the year[2] Import Analysis - In July 2024, China's import amount was $215.91 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.2%, up 9.5 percentage points from June[3] - The average annual compound growth rate of imports since 2019 decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 4.0%[3] - Imports from the US, EU, and ASEAN saw significant increases, reaching 24.1%, 7.1%, and 11.1% respectively[3] Future Outlook - Export growth is expected to face increased uncertainty due to fluctuating growth rates and external trade policy challenges[4] - The interplay of favorable and unfavorable factors in foreign trade will contribute to the unpredictability of future export growth[4]