美国经济再观察（四）：美国经济或不着陆

Group 1: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The Sahm Rule reaching a critical threshold raises recession concerns, but it is primarily a confirmation indicator rather than a predictor of recession[5][12]. - Historical data shows that when the Sahm Rule is triggered, the U.S. economy is often already in recession, with negative GDP growth, which is inconsistent with the current cycle[5][12][15]. - Since 1965, the Federal Reserve has had 11 tightening cycles, with only 3 exceptions where tightening did not lead to recession[8][26]. Group 2: Conditions for Avoiding Recession - The current economic cycle may avoid recession due to favorable demand-side conditions, including limited need for demand suppression to stabilize inflation expectations[6][8]. - Supply-side factors, such as high potential economic growth driven by manufacturing investment and immigration, also support the possibility of avoiding recession[7][8]. - The absence of external shocks is considered a necessary condition for achieving a soft landing[7][8]. Group 3: Historical Context and Comparisons - Historical patterns indicate that hard landings often occur during significant external shocks, such as the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic[8][30]. - The average time from the peak of tightening to recession is relatively short, suggesting that prolonged periods without recession after peak tightening may indicate economic resilience[30][40]. - In the current cycle, the economy has not shown signs of recession even after 30 months of tightening, which may suggest a unique resilience in this economic environment[40][41].