中汽协7月销量点评：7月销量环比下滑，政策加码助力内需向上

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the automotive industry [4]. Core Insights - In July, the automotive industry experienced a decline in sales, with passenger car sales reaching 1.994 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 10.0% [2][4]. - The government has introduced measures to boost consumption, including increased subsidies for vehicle trade-ins, which are expected to stimulate demand in the second half of the year [2][4]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) continues to rise, with July sales of NEVs at approximately 953,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 27.7% [4]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - July passenger car sales were 1.994 million units, down 5.1% year-on-year and 10.0% month-on-month [2][4]. - Cumulative sales from January to July 2024 reached 13.974 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.5% [4]. Policy Impact - On July 24, the government announced measures to support large-scale equipment updates and trade-ins, increasing subsidies for eligible vehicles [4]. - The number of subsidy applications surged, with 364,000 applications by July 25 and over 450,000 by August 2, indicating a strong upward trend [2][4]. New Energy Vehicles - July NEV sales were approximately 953,000 units, with a penetration rate of 47.8%, up 12.3 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - Cumulative NEV sales from January to July 2024 reached about 5.654 million units, a year-on-year increase of 30.8% [4]. Brand Performance - In July, sales of domestic brands reached 1.323 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10.1% and a market share of 66.4%, up 9.2 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - Cumulative sales for domestic brands in the first half of 2024 were 8.742 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.6% [4]. Export Trends - In July, domestic passenger car exports were 399,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 22.4% [4]. - Cumulative exports from January to July 2024 reached 2.738 million units, a year-on-year increase of 30.1% [4]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended passenger car manufacturers include BYD, Geely, Changan, Great Wall, Li Auto, and Xpeng [4]. - Recommended commercial vehicle manufacturers include Weichai Power, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, and Yutong Bus [4]. - Recommended auto parts suppliers include Xingyu, Deren Technology, Bertley, Huayang Group, New Spring, Top Group, Yinlun, and Lingyun [4].