Morning Insight： August 12， 2024

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive outlook for PX (Paraxylene) despite a weak medium-term outlook, suggesting a restocking cycle and potential spread opportunities [1][2]. Core Insights - The PX market is expected to experience a tight supply-demand balance in August, with a new PTA production unit planned to come online in Q4, which may lead to lower raw material prices [1]. - The live hog market shows signs of inventory accumulation, with spot prices reaching new highs, indicating a healthy price increase trend supported by seasonal demand [5]. - The stock index futures market is influenced by macroeconomic data, with expectations of policy support following recent meetings, although risk appetite remains low [6][7]. Summary by Sections PX (Paraxylene) - The correction phase has ended, with a short-term rebound expected. The supply-demand balance for PX is tight in August, and a new PTA production unit is set to start purchasing raw materials at lower prices [1]. - PTA processing fees have dropped significantly, indicating a negative feedback loop affecting the supply chain [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - The glass market is experiencing short-term weakness, with stable transaction prices but pressure from high supply and low demand expectations [3]. - The soda ash market remains quiet, with companies adopting a wait-and-see attitude due to high inventories and average sales [3]. Live Hogs - Spot prices for live hogs have reached new highs, with inventory accumulation beginning. The market is expected to support continued price strength due to seasonal demand increases [5]. Stock Index Futures - Global market sentiment has stabilized, but risk appetite for stock index futures remains low. Capital rotation into real estate and consumer sectors indicates strong expectations for domestic demand policies [6]. - Upcoming macroeconomic data releases may shift market focus back to fundamentals, with potential impacts on trading volumes and market pricing [6][7].