原油月报

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil industry, but it provides insights into market trends and forecasts that may influence investment decisions. Core Insights - The average price of Brent crude oil in August 2024 was $77.8 per barrel, a decrease of $6.1 month-on-month and $7.3 year-on-year. The average price for 2024 is projected to be $83.4 per barrel, an increase of $1.2 year-on-year [4]. - Global crude oil production in 2023 was 101.79 million barrels per day (mb/d), with consumption at 101 mb/d. For 2024, production is expected to rise to 102.36 mb/d (up 0.6% year-on-year), while consumption is projected to reach 102.94 mb/d (up 1% year-on-year), indicating a demand-supply gap of -0.59 mb/d [6]. - OPEC's production in 2023 averaged 32.19 mb/d, a decrease of 2.2% year-on-year. In the first seven months of 2024, OPEC's production was 31.95 mb/d, down 1.6% year-on-year but up 0.3% month-on-month [9]. - U.S. crude oil production in 2023 was 21.91 mb/d, an increase of 7.9% year-on-year. In the first seven months of 2024, production averaged 22.3 mb/d, up 3.8% year-on-year but down 0.3% month-on-month [11]. - Russian crude oil production in 2023 was 10.76 mb/d, a decrease of 2.0% year-on-year. In the first seven months of 2024, production averaged 10.5 mb/d, down 1.3% year-on-year and 2.4% month-on-month [13]. - U.S. crude oil consumption in 2023 was 20.24 mb/d, an increase of 1.2% year-on-year. In the first seven months of 2024, consumption averaged 20.25 mb/d, down 0.7% year-on-year and 1.2% month-on-month [16]. - Indian crude oil consumption in 2023 was 5.3 mb/d, an increase of 5.7% year-on-year. In the first seven months of 2024, consumption averaged 5.61 mb/d, up 5.6% year-on-year and 7.1% month-on-month [18]. - Chinese crude oil consumption in 2023 was 16.06 mb/d, an increase of 6% year-on-year. In the first seven months of 2024, consumption averaged 16.4 mb/d, up 1.9% year-on-year and 2.5% month-on-month [20]. Summary by Sections Supply - Global crude oil production is projected to increase slightly in 2024, with OPEC and Russian production declining [6][9][13]. - U.S. production shows a mixed trend with year-on-year growth but a slight month-on-month decline [11]. Demand - Overall global demand is expected to grow, particularly in India, while U.S. consumption shows signs of decline [16][18][20].