中国移动：业绩符合预期，派息比例稳步提升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Mobile with a target price of HKD 80, representing a potential upside of 12% from the current stock price of HKD 71 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company's performance in the first half of 2024 met expectations, with total revenue reaching CNY 546.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%. Communication service revenue was CNY 463.6 billion, up 2.5% year-on-year. Net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 80.2 billion, reflecting a 5.3% increase year-on-year [2][3]. - The EBITDA for the first half of 2024 was CNY 182.3 billion, a slight decrease of 0.7% year-on-year, with an EBITDA margin of 39.3% of communication service revenue [2][3]. - The capital expenditure for the first half of 2024 was CNY 64 billion, down 21.4% year-on-year, with expectations for a further decline of 4.0% for the full year to CNY 173 billion, bringing the capital expenditure to revenue ratio below 20% [2][3]. - Free cash flow for the first half of 2024 was CNY 67.4 billion, a decrease of 14.8% year-on-year, with an interim dividend of HKD 2.6 per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 63.3%, up from 62.5% in the same period last year [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, China Mobile achieved a revenue of CNY 546.7 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 3.0%. The communication service revenue was CNY 463.6 billion, growing by 2.5% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 80.2 billion, marking a 5.3% increase year-on-year [2][3]. - The company expects the full-year dividend payout ratio for 2024 to exceed last year's 71%, aiming to gradually increase the cash distribution of profits to over 75% of the net profit attributable to shareholders within three years starting from 2024 [2][3]. Market Segments - The CHBN segment continues to grow, accounting for 45.0% of communication service revenue, with personal market revenue at CNY 255.2 billion, a decrease of 1.6% year-on-year. The mobile user base reached 1 billion, with a net addition of 9.26 million users [2][3]. - The family market revenue was CNY 69.8 billion, up 7.5% year-on-year, with a leading position in the industry for family broadband users, totaling 272 million, with a net addition of 8.48 million users [2][3]. - The government and enterprise market revenue was CNY 112 billion, growing by 7.3% year-on-year, with the number of government and enterprise customers reaching 30.38 million, adding 2.01 million customers [2][3]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a decline in capital expenditures and an emphasis on high-quality development, which is expected to support profit growth. The projected revenue growth rates for 2024-2026 are 3.9%, 3.6%, and 3.5%, respectively, while net profit growth rates are expected to be 5.9%, 5.2%, and 4.7% [2][3][7].