高盛：中国-7月进口增长意外上扬

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for imports with a score of +3, while exports received a score of 0, reflecting weaker performance [2]. Core Insights - China's export value growth was 7.0% year-over-year in July, which was below expectations, while import value growth was 7.2%, exceeding consensus forecasts [3][5]. - The trade surplus decreased to US$84.6 billion in July from US$99 billion in June, indicating a decline in export performance [5][9]. - Import strength was attributed to more working days in July this year compared to last year, contributing to a sequential growth of 4.0% in imports [5][6]. Summary by Category Exports - Year-over-year export growth moderated to 7.0% in July from 8.6% in June, with a sequential decline of 2.0% non-annualized [3][5]. - Exports to major trading partners showed mixed results, with exports to the US rising by 8.1% year-over-year and to the EU by 8.0% [6][13]. - Tech-related products, such as chips and automobiles, saw significant growth, with chip exports increasing by 27.7% year-over-year [7][15]. Imports - Import growth accelerated to 7.2% year-over-year in July, rebounding from a decline of 2.3% in June, with a sequential increase of 4.0% [3][5]. - Notable increases in imports included automobiles, which rose by 17.3% year-over-year, and chips, which increased by 14.9% [8][17]. - Import value rose across major trading partners, indicating a broad-based recovery in demand [6][15]. Trade Balance - The trade balance showed a decline in surplus, falling to US$84.6 billion in July from US$99 billion in June, reflecting weaker export performance [5][9].