China Economic Outlook Property Downturn， Tariff Risk and Policy Responses

Investment Rating - The report provides a GDP growth forecast of 4.9% for 2024, indicating a slower growth outlook due to various economic factors [15]. Core Insights - The property sector is experiencing a significant downturn, with sales, starts, and real estate investment (REI) projected to decline by 5-10%, 15-20%, and 5-10% respectively in 2024 [16]. - Consumption recovery remains weak, with offline activities normalizing but overall consumption still below pre-COVID trends, influenced by factors such as income, confidence, and excess savings [17][35]. - Infrastructure fixed asset investment (FAI) is expected to moderate to 5-6% in 2024 from 8% in 2023, reflecting a shift in government support dynamics [18]. - Exports are projected to remain resilient, with nominal exports expected to increase by 3.5% in 2024, supported by robust US growth and ongoing global tech cycles [19]. Economic Indicators Summary - Real GDP growth is forecasted at 4.9% for 2024, with a notable Q1 growth of 5.3% followed by a slowdown to 4.7% in Q2 [15]. - Consumption growth is expected to be 5.1% in 2024, down from 6.4% in 2023, reflecting ongoing challenges in consumer confidence and spending [3]. - Fixed investment growth is projected to stabilize at 3.7% for 2024, consistent with the previous year [3]. - The current account balance is expected to decrease to 1.2% of GDP in 2024, down from 1.4% in 2023 [3]. Sector-Specific Insights - The property sector's downturn is described as the sharpest in history, significantly impacting GDP and local government financing [16][25]. - Infrastructure investment is anticipated to slow down, with a focus on maintaining fiscal support amid weaker local government financing conditions [18]. - Retail sales growth is projected to remain subdued, with key factors such as youth unemployment and cautious consumer sentiment affecting overall spending [35][38]. Policy and Market Dynamics - Major coordinated policy easing measures were implemented in May 2024 to address the property downturn, although the effectiveness of these measures remains to be seen [22]. - The report highlights the importance of addressing inventory destocking in the property sector, with limited progress noted so far [16][25]. - The report emphasizes the need for further policy support to stimulate consumption and investment, particularly in the context of high savings rates and cautious consumer behavior [41].