The Morning Call：The Week Ahead： 12~16 August

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies within it [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report discusses key macro events for the week ahead, including central bank meetings and economic data releases, indicating a cautious market outlook [6][8]. - It highlights that inflation has fallen below central bank forecasts but remains above targets, which may influence central bank decisions [8]. - The report suggests that the market may be underestimating the potential for earlier rate cuts by central banks, particularly the Norges Bank [8]. Weekly Highlights - The report notes that August often marks a peak in richness for Bunds, indicating potential market dynamics to watch [10]. - It emphasizes that market pricing is skewed towards a front-loaded cycle for interest rate changes, with implications for future monetary policy [12]. - The report provides expectations for EGB spreads under different economic scenarios, indicating a current BTP-Bund spread of 143 basis points [13]. Supply Insights - The report outlines upcoming supply from various countries, including Germany and France, with specific issuance details such as the size and type of bonds [20][21]. - It mentions that the UK DMO will issue £3 billion of 3.75% gilt Jan38s, indicating active market participation [20]. - The report includes RV metrics for this week's nominal auctions, providing insights into valuation and yield changes [22][23].