Macro Views：Export Volume Growth Remained High in July

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry, but it discusses various trends and performance metrics that could influence investment decisions. Core Insights - China's year-on-year export growth in USD terms decreased from 8.6% in June to 7% in July 2024, falling below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 9.5% [1] - Year-on-year import growth in USD terms increased from -2.3% in June to 7.2%, surpassing the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 3.2% [1] - The trade surplus in July was USD 84.7 billion, down from USD 99.0 billion in June, but up by approximately USD 5.3 billion year-on-year [1][23] Summary by Sections Macro Views - The global manufacturing cycle has shown signs of marginal weakening, with the manufacturing PMI across developed countries falling below the 50 boom-bust line [2] - A slowdown in US consumption is impacting China's exports of light industrial products and textiles, with actual consumer spending in the US increasing by only 0.2% month-on-month in June [2] - The export price index has faced setbacks, with Brent crude oil prices falling by 5.7% in July [2] Export Performance - High-end manufacturing, particularly in automobiles, continues to show rapid export growth, supported by a buoyant business climate for industrial chains [3] - In July 2024, year-on-year growth in exports of mechanical and electrical products was strong at 10%, contributing 5.8 percentage points to overall export growth [4][17] - Exports of light industry and textiles fell by 2.4%, attributed to a slowdown in US consumer demand [4] Import Performance - Year-on-year import growth in USD terms increased to 7.2%, driven by a low base effect from July 2023 and strong demand in the electronics sector [7] - Notable increases in import growth were seen in energy products, with coal imports rising by 20.8 percentage points to 17.4% year-on-year [7] Regional Export Trends - Exports to developed countries, including the US and EU, showed growth, with year-on-year increases of 8.1% and 8.0% respectively [6] - Exports to developing countries, particularly in ASEAN and Latin America, have shown signs of slowing momentum [6] Future Outlook - The report anticipates potential disruptions to China's exports due to slowing overseas demand and uncertainties surrounding the upcoming US elections [8] - The sustainability of import growth remains uncertain, with the manufacturing PMI in China edging down to 49.4 in July [8]