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Tactical Derivatives Strategy
J.P.Morgan·2024-08-13 10:00

Investment Ratings - Palo Alto Networks (PANW) is rated Overweight with a price target (PT) of 340/share[5][19]TargetCorporation(TGT)isratedNeutralwithaPTof340/share [5][19] - Target Corporation (TGT) is rated Neutral with a PT of 153/share [11][19] Core Insights - PANW shares have risen 12.4% year-to-date, performing in line with the S&P 500 index (+13% YTD) and the Nasdaq Composite index (+12% YTD) [5] - Despite a nearly 4% drop following billings weakness in F3Q'24 results, PANW is well-positioned for future growth due to better margin expansion and potential revenue recovery [5] - TGT shares have underperformed, falling almost 4% YTD, as the company faces challenges related to consumer discretionary spending and sales declines [10][11] Summary by Sections Palo Alto Networks (PANW) - The report recommends bullish investors to overlay positions with a September 13th 335/335/360 strike 1x2 Call Spread Booster, indicating a 0.1% option premium against a reference price of 331.48[5]TheimpliedmoveforPANWstandsatalmost10331.48 [5] - The implied move for PANW stands at almost 10%, which is above its 5-year (8.3%) and 10-year (8.0%) averages [3] - The valuation is based on a 31.7x EV/FCF multiple of CY24 estimates, implying a 29.6x multiple on CY25 FCF estimates, which is slightly discounted compared to peers [5] Target Corporation (TGT) - The report suggests bearish investors buy a September 13th 150/132/132/127 strike Collared Put Spread, paying a 0.2% option premium against a reference price of $135.50 [6] - TGT's implied move is almost 8%, in line with its medium-term average but above its longer-term history [10] - The team expects management to narrow down guidance for both comps and EPS, potentially leading to downward revisions and pressure on shares [11]