Mohegan Tribal Gaming：Q3'24 Initial Analysis，Good Enough

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or company, but it indicates that the results are "good enough to support current debt trading levels" [2]. Core Insights - The consolidated Adjusted EBITDA for Q3'24 was $104.7 million, a decrease of 3.3% compared to $108.4 million in Q3'23, while revenues increased by 21.4% to $504.2 million from $415.4 million in the previous year [4][10]. - The Restricted Group reported an estimated EBITDA of approximately $97 million, reflecting a growth of 13% from around $86 million in Q3'23 [4][10]. - Management noted improvements in business volumes at Mohegan Inspire, which is approaching profitability, and progress on debt reduction [2][4]. Revenue Summary - Mohegan Sun generated revenues of $235.7 million in Q3'24, up 2.2% from $230.7 million in Q3'23, while Mohegan Pennsylvania saw revenues increase by 5.3% to $68.7 million [3][4]. - Digital operations reported revenues of $41.9 million, a significant increase from $16.7 million in Q3'23 [3][4]. - Niagara Resorts experienced a revenue decline of 7.1%, down to $75.3 million from $81.1 million in the previous year [3][4]. Adjusted EBITDA Analysis - Mohegan Sun's Adjusted EBITDA was $62.9 million, down 8.2% from $68.5 million in Q3'23, while Mohegan Pennsylvania's Adjusted EBITDA increased by 40.6% to $19.8 million [4][5]. - Digital operations achieved an Adjusted EBITDA of $23.1 million, nearly doubling from $11.6 million in Q3'23 [4][9]. - Mohegan Inspire reported a loss of $7.6 million in Q3'24, indicating challenges in its early operational phase [9]. Operational Metrics - Table revenue decreased to $46.4 million, down 2.7% from $47.7 million in Q3'23, while slot revenue remained relatively stable at $98.7 million, a slight decrease of 0.2% [5][9]. - The lodging segment showed positive trends, with RevPAR increasing to $152, a 0.5% rise from $151 in Q3'23, driven by higher occupancy rates [5][9]. - Mohegan Inspire celebrated its grand opening on March 5, 2024, and received a five-star hotel rating, which may enhance its market position [10]. Debt and Leverage - The estimated restricted group debt stands at $1.77 billion, with a leverage ratio of 5.2x based on LTM EBITDA of $337 million [10][12]. - Management anticipates refinancing the 8.000% Second Lien Notes due 2026 before they become current maturities in 2025 [10].