汽车行业专题研究：拉美市场桥头堡，巴西加速新能源转型

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Stronger than the Market" rating for the automotive industry in Brazil, specifically focusing on the rapid development of the new energy vehicle (NEV) market [4] Core Views - Brazil's automotive market is in a recovery phase, with NEV sales experiencing rapid growth, driven by the increasing competitiveness of Chinese brands like BYD, which have strong product offerings in both pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles [2] - The Brazilian government has reintroduced import tariffs on NEVs, gradually increasing the rate to 35%, which incentivizes local production and gives an edge to companies like BYD, Great Wall, and Chery that are actively localizing their manufacturing capabilities [2] - BYD is leading the NEV market in Brazil, with its plug-in hybrid models offering significant advantages in terms of refueling costs and range, contributing to the overall growth of the NEV sector [6] Market Recovery and NEV Growth - Brazil's automotive market is recovering, with 2023 sales reaching 2.308 million units, a 9.7% YoY increase, and H1 2024 sales at 1.144 million units, up 14.6% YoY [6] - NEV sales in Brazil surged to 20,000 units in 2023, with H1 2024 sales reaching 38,000 units, driven by increased exports from Chinese automakers [6] - The NEV penetration rate in Brazil reached 3.3% in H1 2024, up from 0.9% in 2023, with pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles accounting for 2.4% and 0.9% of the market, respectively [6] Market Structure and Consumer Preferences - Brazil's automotive market is dominated by European and American brands, with Stellantis, Volkswagen, and General Motors holding nearly 60% of the market share [6] - Chinese brands are rapidly gaining market share, increasing from 1.7% in 2022 to 6.4% in H1 2024, with BYD leading the charge in the NEV segment [6] - The main price range for traditional vehicles in Brazil is 100,000-200,000 RMB, while NEVs are primarily priced between 200,000-400,000 RMB [6] BYD's Dominance in the NEV Market - BYD accounted for 84% of Brazil's NEV sales in H1 2024, with models like the Song Plus DM-i, Dolphin, and Seagull driving growth [6] - BYD's plug-in hybrid models, particularly the Song Plus DM-i, have a significant cost advantage in terms of refueling, making them highly competitive in the Brazilian market [6] - BYD is expanding its local production capacity in Brazil, with a planned annual output of 150,000 units, further solidifying its position in the market [6] Localization and Tariff Impact - Brazil's reintroduction of NEV import tariffs, which will gradually increase to 35%, is pushing automakers to localize production to reduce costs and maintain competitiveness [6] - BYD, Great Wall, and Chery are actively investing in local production facilities, with BYD's new plant expected to start operations in 2025, producing 150,000 units annually [6] - Localization not only helps mitigate tariff impacts but also allows automakers to better serve the broader Latin American market, which has a combined annual demand of nearly 5 million vehicles [6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on Chinese automakers like BYD and Great Wall, which are actively localizing production in Brazil and are well-positioned to benefit from the growing NEV market [6] - BYD's strong product lineup and cost advantages in plug-in hybrids make it a key player in Brazil's NEV market, with significant growth potential as the market expands [6] - Great Wall's local production plans and competitive models like the Ora Good Cat position it well to capture a larger share of the Brazilian NEV market [6]