US Economic Data NFIB： Stronger small business sentiment

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for small businesses, with the NFIB small business optimism index rising 2.2 points to 93.7 in July, surpassing estimates and consensus expectations [2][3]. Core Insights - Small business optimism has improved for five consecutive months, although it remains below the long-term average of 98 for the 31st month in a row [2]. - The share of firms considering it a good time to expand is historically low at 5%, but expectations for economic improvement surged by 18 points [2][4]. - Employment expectations remain stable, with net plans to increase employment at 15% for three consecutive months [3]. - Inflation continues to be a significant concern, with 25% of businesses citing it as their biggest problem, up from 21% last month [4]. Summary by Sections Small Business Sentiment - The NFIB small business optimism index increased to 93.7, indicating a positive shift in sentiment [2]. - Expectations for higher real sales rose by 4 points to a net -9% [2]. Employment and Compensation - Net plans to increase employment remained steady at 15%, while the share of businesses unable to fill positions rose to 38% [3]. - The share of firms raising compensation dropped to 33%, with plans to increase compensation in the next three months declining to 18% [3]. Credit Conditions - Small businesses report that credit is harder to obtain, with a net reporting of 6% indicating tougher conditions [4]. - The share of households experiencing tighter credit conditions increased to 52%, although expectations for future credit conditions improved slightly [7]. Inflation Expectations - Medium-term inflation expectations fell to 2.3%, marking a series low, while one-year and five-year expectations remained unchanged at 3.0% and 2.8%, respectively [6]. - The perception of inflation uncertainty remained stable across all time horizons [6].