OMV（OMV.AV）Gas supply risks back on the horizon

Investment Rating - The report assigns a 12-month rating of "Neutral" to OMV with a price target of €41.00, while the current price is €38.56 [8][20]. Core Insights - The risk of gas supply interruptions from Russia to Austria has increased, but OMV is better prepared than in 2022 due to diversified gas supply sources [2][4]. - Natural gas prices in Europe have risen approximately 30% recently, influenced by geopolitical tensions, with Russia supplying about 80% of Austria's gas imports [3]. - OMV has secured alternative gas supply routes, including 40TWh via Germany and Italy, 25TWh from Norway, and 20TWh from third-party suppliers, along with 36TWh of LNG from the GATE Terminal in Rotterdam [4]. - In the event of a gas delivery stop, the financial impact on OMV's midstream division is expected to be limited, with a potential €25 million impact on pre-tax earnings for every €5/MWh increase in spot prices, which is only 0.5% of the 2025 EBIT estimate [5]. - Conversely, upstream profits are projected to increase significantly, with a €205 million rise in E&P pre-tax earnings for the same price movement [5]. Financial Metrics - OMV's net earnings are projected to decrease from €4.394 billion in 2022 to €2.593 billion in 2023, with a gradual recovery to €2.417 billion by 2028 [7]. - The diluted EPS is expected to decline from €13.43 in 2022 to €7.92 in 2023, with a forecast of €7.38 by 2028 [7]. - The dividend per share is anticipated to increase from €2.80 in 2022 to €2.95 in 2023, reaching €3.77 by 2028 [7]. - The company's production is expected to decrease from 392 kboe/d in 2022 to 364 kboe/d in 2023, with a slight recovery to 346 kboe/d by 2028 [7]. Market Outlook - The forecast stock return is estimated at 14.4%, combining a price appreciation of 6.3% and a dividend yield of 8.0% [10]. - The market return assumption is set at 8.2%, indicating a forecast excess return of 6.2% [10].