Trade in transition How clean energy could transform global trade

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The global economy is rapidly evolving, significantly influenced by climate change and the transition to cleaner energy sources, which will impact global trade patterns and demand for critical minerals [4][10][11] - By 2040, demand for critical minerals may increase fourfold, with emerging economies positioned to benefit from this shift [4][15] - The role of trade agreements and policies will be crucial in securing supply chains for these minerals, as rising protectionism and supply chain disruptions are observed [4][10][30] Summary by Sections Executive Summary - The report outlines the significant changes in global trade flows due to the energy transition, emphasizing the increasing demand for critical minerals essential for clean energy technologies [9][10] Commodities of the Future - Key minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth elements are projected to see substantial demand growth, particularly driven by electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy technologies [11][24][25] Trade in Transition - The shift towards cleaner energy will lead to a surge in demand for specific minerals, necessitating changes in trade flows and policies [10][15] Revolutions and Evolutions - Climate change is a defining issue, with many economies committing to net zero targets, which will significantly increase the demand for critical minerals [11][30] What Commodities Will Play a Role? - The report identifies various minerals that will be crucial for the energy transition, including lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements, highlighting their increasing importance in clean energy technologies [45][51] Who Sells What? - The report discusses the geographical concentration of critical mineral production, with countries like China playing a dominant role, while emerging economies may gain prominence [4][15][30] Protectionism is on the Rise - The report notes a trend towards protectionism, with countries implementing export controls on critical minerals to enhance domestic supply chains [4][10][30] Diversification to Secure Supply Chains - The need for diversification in supply chains is emphasized, as reliance on a few dominant producers poses risks to the stability of mineral supplies [4][10][30] Role for Trade Agreements - Trade agreements will be essential in facilitating the supply of critical minerals, as countries seek to secure their energy transition needs [4][10][30] Who Could Be the Winners? - Emerging economies with abundant mineral resources are likely to benefit from the growing demand for critical minerals, positioning them as key players in the global trade landscape [4][15][30]