Brinker International Inc（EAT.US）Initial Thoughts on F4Q Results

Investment Rating - The report assigns a 12-month rating of "Neutral" to Brinker International Inc [2][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong sales performance in F4Q with revenues of $1.21 billion, exceeding consensus estimates of $1.16 billion, but notes a disappointing adjusted EBITDA of $141.8 million compared to the expected $144.7 million [2]. - The guidance for FY25 includes projected revenues of $4.55-4.62 billion, adjusted EPS of $4.35-4.75, and capital expenditures of $195-215 million, which are mixed compared to consensus expectations [2]. - The report anticipates a negative market reaction due to lower-than-expected earnings flow-through despite strong sales, as well as FY25 EPS guidance falling below investor expectations [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - F4Q adjusted EBITDA was $141.8 million, missing consensus of $144.7 million, with restaurant margins at 15.2% versus the expected 15.5% [2]. - Revenues for F4Q were $1.21 billion, surpassing the consensus of $1.16 billion [2]. - Adjusted EPS for F4Q was $1.61, below the consensus estimate of $1.72 [2]. Guidance and Projections - FY25 revenue guidance is set at $4.55-4.62 billion, compared to the consensus of $4.49 billion [2]. - Adjusted EPS guidance for FY25 is $4.35-4.75, below the consensus of $4.80 [2]. - Capital expenditures are projected at $195-215 million, slightly above the consensus of $193.1 million [2]. Market Expectations - The report suggests that the stock may react negatively due to the disappointing earnings flow-through and lower-than-expected EPS guidance for FY25 [2]. - The focus for the upcoming earnings call will likely be on traffic and sales trends, as well as further details on FY25 guidance [2].