Acumen Pharmaceuticals(US:ABOS)2024-08-15 03:50Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Acumen Pharmaceuticals Inc with a 12-month price target (PT) lowered to $6 from $14 [4][8]. Core Insights - The investment thesis has been updated following the 2Q24 earnings report, with a focus on the execution of Phase 2 (P2) trials for sabirnetug (ACU193) as a key driver for stock performance [2][6]. - The overall sentiment in the Alzheimer's disease (AD) market remains low, influenced by regulatory setbacks and slow commercial uptake of competing products [3][9]. - Despite the challenges, the report highlights that Acumen Pharmaceuticals has sufficient cash to fund operations into the first half of 2027, with P2 trial enrollment exceeding expectations [6][7]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - 12-month rating: Buy - 12-month price target: $6.00 (previously $14.00) [4]. Financial Performance - Current stock price as of August 14, 2024: $2.46 - Market capitalization: $0.14 billion - Expected revenues for 12/24E: $21 million [5]. Market and Competitive Landscape - The AD market is sizable but has seen a decline in clinical trials and investigational drugs in 2024 compared to 2023 [3]. - Regulatory risks have increased following the EMA refusal of Leqembi, impacting overall market sentiment [3][9]. Company-Specific Developments - Acumen Pharmaceuticals reported a cash position of $281.4 million, sufficient to support ongoing trials [6]. - Management noted that the P2 ALTITUDE-AD study is progressing faster than expected, with positive feedback on the trial design [6][7]. Valuation Adjustments - Peak sales estimates for sabirnetug have been lowered from $6.8 billion to $2.4 billion due to anticipated lower commercial uptake [9][10]. - The probability of success (PoS) for sabirnetug has been increased from 15% to 20% based on evolving clinical data [9][10].