Global Economic Forecast Database ：UBS forecasts~changes this week

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [1]. Core Insights - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has lowered its policy rate forecast for 2024 and 2025, now expecting a 25 basis points cut in both October and November meetings, totaling 175 basis points of cuts in 2025 [3]. - Inflation forecasts have been slightly increased for Canada, Hungary, the Philippines, and Brazil [3]. Economic Forecasts Summary - United States: Real GDP growth forecast for 2024 is 2.5%, with CPI at 2.9% and a fiscal balance of -6.9% [6]. - Japan: Real GDP growth forecast for 2024 is 0.0%, with CPI at 2.5% and a fiscal balance of -3.5% [6]. - Canada: Real GDP growth forecast for 2024 is 0.8%, with CPI at 2.6% and a fiscal balance of -1.2% [6]. - Eurozone: Real GDP growth forecast for 2024 is 0.6%, with CPI at 2.4% and a fiscal balance of -2.9% [6]. - China: Real GDP growth forecast for 2024 is 4.9%, with CPI at 0.4% and a fiscal balance of -4.6% [6]. - India: Real GDP growth forecast for 2024 is 7.0%, with CPI at 4.3% and a fiscal balance of -7.9% [6]. - Latin America: Real GDP growth forecast for 2024 is 1.9%, with CPI at 28.5% and a fiscal balance of -5.6% [6]. Global Assumptions - The EUR/USD exchange rate is projected to be 1.08 by the end of 2024 and 1.10 by the end of 2025 [7]. - The average Brent oil price is expected to be $84.0 in 2024 and$80.0 in 2025 [7].