EMEA Economic Comment Poland： Stronger~than~expected Q2 rebound puts 3% GDP growth within reach

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the GDP growth forecast for Poland in 2024 to 3.0% from a previous estimate of 2.2% [1] Core Insights - Strong Q2 GDP growth of 3.2% year-on-year (unadjusted) exceeded the Bloomberg consensus of 2.7% [1] - The positive statistical carry-over for FY 2024 GDP has increased from approximately 1 percentage point to 2.7 percentage points due to revisions in past quarters [1] - The report anticipates further GDP acceleration to 3.4% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, aligning with consensus forecasts for 2024 but remaining more conservative for 2025-2026 [1] Summary by Sections Economic Performance - Q2 GDP growth was significantly stronger than expected, with a sequential increase of 1.5% quarter-on-quarter, surpassing the 1% consensus [1] - Revisions to previous quarters contributed 0.5 percentage points to the current forecast, indicating a robust economic recovery [1] Consumption and Investment - The report suggests that inventories and potentially consumption are likely drivers of the GDP rebound, despite subdued activity data in construction and retail sales [2] - Industrial output showed a modest increase of 1.7% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, following a decline in Q1 [2] - Investment is expected to remain a drag on headline GDP, while net exports likely contributed negatively to growth due to weak external demand [2] Inflation and Energy Prices - July tariff increases for electricity and gas were lower than expected, contributing to a dovish consumer price index (CPI) print [3] - Electricity prices rose by 19.9% month-on-month, and gas prices increased by 16.8% month-on-month, which were below earlier projections [3] - The report anticipates that household energy tariff increases in January 2025 may be smaller than previously estimated, potentially leading to a peak headline CPI of around 5% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [5]