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Japan Equity Strategy & Thematic Research:Prime Minister Kishida to resign; what will the stock market impact be?
UBS·2024-08-15 04:00

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide a numerical investment rating for the industry but indicates a general positive outlook based on the continuity of pro-corporate policies under the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) [2][3]. Core Insights - The resignation of Prime Minister Kishida is expected to lead to a presidential election within the LDP, with potential candidates including Shigeru Ishiba and Shinjiro Koizumi among others [1]. - The report anticipates that while there may be no major ideological shifts, differences in fiscal and monetary policies could impact the stock market [2]. - Historical trends suggest that stock prices tend to rise during periods of political dissolution and general elections, indicating a potential buying opportunity during these phases [3]. Summary by Sections Political Context - Prime Minister Kishida's decision not to run for re-election could lead to a shift in leadership within the LDP, with elections scheduled for late September [1]. - The report notes that the approval ratings of the Cabinet and LDP are currently stagnant, and improvements could lead to a general election [3]. Economic Policies - The continuity of pro-business policies is expected as long as the LDP remains in power, although variations in specific policy areas such as fiscal and monetary strategies may arise [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the stock market's reaction to the upcoming political changes and potential policy shifts [2][3].