Workflow
Japan Autos, Auto Parts and Auto~tech Sector:July US CPI: Both new and used vehicle prices down only slightly mom
UBS·2024-08-15 04:00

Investment Rating - The report has Buy ratings on Toyota Industries, Denso, and Suzuki, while Sell ratings are assigned to Honda, Isuzu, and Hino [5][32]. Core Insights - New car prices and cost of ownership remain high, with July US CPI data showing new vehicle prices down 0.1% month-over-month and down 1.1% year-over-year, while used car prices decreased by 1.1% month-over-month and 10.9% year-over-year [3][4]. - The average incentive per vehicle at Honda was 2,728inJuly,reflectingayearoveryearincreaseof2,728 in July, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 1,089 (up 66%), driven by BEV incentives [4]. - The BEV weighting relative to overall sales increased from 6.5% in March 2024 to 7.8% in July, with Honda leading Japanese OEMs in BEV sales [5]. Summary by Sections Pricing Trends - New vehicle prices remain stable at high levels, with average incentives per unit rising to 3,398,similartolevelsseenfrom2010to2020[3].AutoinsurancecostshavecontinuedtorisebydoubledigitsyearoveryearsinceOctober2022,contributingtohighvehicleownershipcosts[3][10].BEVMarketDynamicsHondasBEVincentivesareprojectedtorisetoaround3,398, similar to levels seen from 2010 to 2020 [3]. - Auto insurance costs have continued to rise by double digits year-over-year since October 2022, contributing to high vehicle ownership costs [3][10]. BEV Market Dynamics - Honda's BEV incentives are projected to rise to around 10,000, influenced by competitive pricing strategies and the introduction of new models [4]. - The report anticipates ongoing increases in incentives as BEV sales grow, particularly from 2025 onwards [4]. Sales Performance - In July, Honda sold 4,152 BEVs, leading among Japanese manufacturers, followed by Nissan and Toyota [5]. - The report notes that the Civic HEV's sales contribution is expected to align with that of the Accord, with a significant price difference between HEV and ICE versions [4].