当金铜遇上降息，观一叶而知深秋

Investment Rating - The industry is rated positively, with expectations of returns exceeding the market index (CSI 300) by more than 5% in the next six months [43]. Core Insights - Gold prices tend to perform well before and after interest rate cuts, while copper prices generally decline [3][9]. - The current interest rate cut cycle shows a strong positive correlation between copper prices and the economy, with a bullish outlook for gold prices due to macroeconomic factors [25][28]. - The macroeconomic environment of the current rate cut cycle is more similar to that of 2019, suggesting a high probability of a "soft landing" for the economy [28]. - The tight supply of copper concentrate remains unchanged, supported by demand from both traditional and emerging sectors [33]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Price Performance Analysis - Historical analysis shows that gold prices typically rise before and during interest rate cuts, while copper prices exhibit mixed performance [3][10]. - In the 1995 rate cut cycle, gold prices were stable, and copper prices performed well, indicating a strong correlation with economic recovery [11]. - The 2001 rate cut cycle saw gold prices decline and copper prices weaken, reflecting a "hard landing" scenario [13]. - During the 2007 rate cut, gold prices increased while copper prices initially rose but later fell due to worsening economic conditions [15]. - The 2019 rate cut cycle resulted in rising gold prices and fluctuating copper prices, influenced by global economic concerns [18]. Section 2: Economic Correlation and Outlook - The current interest rate cut cycle shows a strong positive correlation between copper prices and the U.S. economy, with expectations of rising gold prices due to the depreciation of the dollar [25]. - The macroeconomic environment is similar to 2019, with a high likelihood of a "soft landing" as inflation decreases and unemployment rises [28]. Section 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The tight supply of copper concentrate is expected to persist, with both the U.S. and China in a replenishment cycle, supporting demand [33]. - China's investment in the power grid is projected to exceed 600 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 14% year-on-year increase, indicating strong demand resilience [33].