美国7月CPI点评：整体放缓，但结构有反弹

Inflation Data - The US CPI for July 2024 increased by 2.9% year-on-year, lower than market expectations and the previous month's 3.0%, marking the lowest level since March 2021[1] - The core CPI year-on-year fell to 3.2%, consistent with expectations and down from 3.3% in the previous month, indicating a continuous slowdown in core inflation for four consecutive months[1] - Month-on-month CPI rose by 0.2%, matching expectations but higher than the previous month's -0.1%[1] Energy and Housing - Energy prices rebounded in July, with gasoline prices increasing after significant declines in the previous two months, while electricity prices also turned positive[1] - Housing inflation rebounded in July, with major rent indices showing increases of 0.5% and 0.4% for primary residence rent and Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER), respectively[1] - The housing inflation trend indicates potential upward risks despite a general slowdown in inflation[1] Market Expectations - Despite the overall inflation slowdown, the rebound in sticky inflation data like housing has reduced market expectations for a significant rate cut in September[2] - The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September dropped to 44% after the July CPI release, down from 53% prior to the data announcement[2] - The market is currently pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut, supported by the return of the CPI to the "2" range, but a 50 basis point cut seems unlikely[2]