中国物价数据点评（2024年7月）：季节因素扰动，通胀温和回升

Inflation Overview - July CPI inflation recorded at 0.5%, exceeding previous value (0.2%) and market expectation (0.3%) [1] - July PPI inflation remained at -0.8%, consistent with previous value and market expectation [1] CPI Analysis - Food inflation significantly increased, with pork prices rising and fresh vegetables and eggs also seeing price increases [2] - July food prices rose 1.2% month-on-month, with year-on-year growth returning to near zero for the first time since July 2023, contributing 0.5 percentage points to CPI inflation [2] - Seasonal factors influenced prices of fresh vegetables and eggs, with prices rising 9.3% and 3.7% month-on-month respectively [2] - Core CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth of 0.4%, slightly lower than June [2] PPI Analysis - July PPI remained unchanged month-on-month and year-on-year, with declines of 0.2% and 0.8% respectively [3] - Price differentiation persists across upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors, with upstream prices increasing while midstream and downstream prices remain low [3] - Upstream mining and raw materials prices saw a year-on-year increase of 3.5% due to high international oil prices [3] Future Outlook - Inflation is expected to continue a moderate recovery, with CPI potentially rising to around 0.6% for the year and PPI converging towards -1.0% [4] - The recovery in CPI is influenced by seasonal factors, while the uncertainty in upstream prices may affect PPI support [4]