行内偕作·宏观点评：金融数据点评（2024年7月）-内涵发展 盘活存量

Credit - In July, new RMB loans amounted to 260 billion, significantly lower than the five-year average of approximately 571.5 billion, representing a decline of 69% compared to the previous month[3] - Loans to the real economy decreased by 76.7 billion, marking the lowest level since data tracking began in 2002[3] - Non-financial enterprise loans increased by 130 billion, down 1,078 billion year-on-year, with medium and long-term loans also decreasing by 1,412 billion[3] Social Financing - In July, new social financing reached 770.8 billion, an increase of 234.2 billion year-on-year, with a stock growth rate slightly rising to 8.2%[5] - Government bonds issued amounted to 691.1 billion, lower than the previous months but still up 280.2 billion year-on-year[5] - Corporate bond financing increased by 202.8 billion, up 73.8 billion year-on-year, driven by a decline in bond yields[5] Monetary Supply - M2 growth rate rose slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 6.3% in July, while M1 decreased by 6.6% year-on-year[6] - Corporate deposits fell by 1.78 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 250 billion, indicating weak loan demand[6] - Household deposits decreased by 330 billion, down 479.3 billion year-on-year, reflecting a sluggish consumption environment[6] Bond Market - The central bank adjusted the 7-day reverse repo rate from 1.80% to 1.70%, leading to a decline in bond yields across various maturities[7] - The 10-year and 30-year government bond yields fell to 2.21% and 2.38%, respectively, down 5 basis points and 8 basis points from the previous month[7] - Following the release of financial data, market expectations shifted towards a focus on quality over quantity in financing[7] Outlook - Domestic demand remains insufficient, and financial supply adjustments are dragging down credit issuance[8] - Future financing growth will depend on stronger macro policies to stimulate economic recovery and effective credit demand[8] - The central political bureau's recent meeting indicated a more proactive macro policy, suggesting potential recovery in social financing and M2 growth if policies are implemented effectively[8]