历次美联储降息对资产价格的影响

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cuts - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts can be categorized into two types: crisis relief cuts and preventive cuts, with the former typically having larger and longer-lasting reductions[1] - Since 1982, the Federal Reserve has implemented 4 crisis relief cuts and 5 preventive cuts, with the key distinction being whether the U.S. economy is in recession at the time of the cut[7] - Crisis relief cuts are often triggered by significant economic crises, while preventive cuts occur in response to signs of economic slowdown[23] Group 2: Asset Performance During Rate Cuts - Equity assets tend to perform better during preventive rate cut periods, while they are more likely to decline during crisis relief cuts[2] - Bond yields generally decrease and prices increase during both types of rate cuts, with U.S. Treasury yields typically declining post-cut[5] - The U.S. dollar usually weakens following rate cuts, while commodity prices show a weaker correlation, with gold prices rising more significantly during crisis relief cuts[2] Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The 1989 rate cut cycle, initiated to address the savings and loan crisis, saw a total reduction of 681 basis points over 40 months[15] - The 2001 rate cuts, aimed at countering the dot-com bubble burst, resulted in a cumulative reduction of 550 basis points over 30 months[16] - Current expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve is likely to enter a rate-cutting cycle, which, combined with improving domestic fundamentals, may elevate market levels[6]