中银证券：中银晨会聚焦-20240820

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The evaluation of stimulus policies should be contextualized within specific macroeconomic environments, as the same policy can yield different effects depending on the circumstances [2] - The true constraint of stimulus policies lies in the macroeconomic supply capacity, targeting inflation and international balance of payments [2] - Stimulating the economy is not merely a short-term fix but a necessary measure to stabilize the economy under structural imbalances [2] Group 2: Power Equipment Industry - The global trend towards energy cleanliness continues, with steady growth in photovoltaic (PV) installations expected throughout the year [3][4] - The PV industry has faced significant pressure on profitability due to previous price wars, which may lead to healthier capacity development in the industry [3] - New technologies such as granular silicon and HJT are anticipated to scale up production, contributing to profitability recovery [3][4] Group 3: Construction and Decoration Industry - In July, infrastructure investment continued to grow rapidly, while new construction and completion data in the real estate sector showed a year-on-year decline [6][7] - Fixed asset investment in July was 6.95 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.94%, driven by manufacturing and infrastructure investments [7] - The construction sector's new starts and completions have decreased, but the decline in completions has narrowed compared to June [6][8]