华润啤酒：啤酒消费需求疲软 白酒业务持续整合

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for the company, citing attractive valuation levels and strong management execution [4] Core Views - The company's beer business faces pressure from weak consumer demand, but internal cost optimization and premiumization efforts are driving profit growth [4] - The company's premium beer segment, led by brands like Heineken, Snow, and Red Label, saw over 10% YoY growth in sales volume [4] - The company's liquor business, particularly the "Summary" brand, is showing strong growth potential, with sales up over 50% YoY [5] - The company's beer business achieved a record-high EBIT margin of 28.3% in H1 2024, driven by cost reductions and lower packaging material costs [4] Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 23.744 billion, down 0.5% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 4.7 billion, up 1.2% YoY [4] - The beer business generated revenue of RMB 22.566 billion in H1 2024, down 1.4% YoY, with a sales volume of 6.348 million tons, down 3.4% YoY [4] - The liquor business achieved revenue of RMB 1.178 billion in H1 2024, up 20.6% YoY, with the "Summary" brand contributing 70% of the liquor business revenue [5] - The company's beer business gross margin improved to 45.8% in H1 2024, up 0.6 percentage points YoY [4] Valuation and Forecast - The report forecasts the company's net profit attributable to shareholders to grow to RMB 5.633 billion, RMB 6.373 billion, and RMB 7.191 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, representing YoY growth rates of 9%, 13%, and 13% [4] - The current stock price implies a PE ratio of 13x, 11x, and 10x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] - The company's valuation (PE-TTM) is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years, making it attractive [4] Business Strategy - The company is focusing on premiumization in its beer business, with mid-to-high-end products expected to continue increasing their share [4] - The company has restructured its beer operations, separating production and sales, which is expected to enhance efficiency [4] - The liquor business is undergoing integration, with the company actively promoting new products and stabilizing pricing to improve profitability [5]