君研海外·如何交易美国大选？从政策的“共性”和“分歧”构建大选策略

Election Dynamics - Harris's winning probability has surpassed Trump's, currently at 58% vs. 44%[5] - In key swing states, Harris has begun to gain a slight lead over Trump, although the margins are within the statistical error range[5] - Economic sentiment in swing states is heavily influenced by the rising cost of living, impacting voter support for the Democratic Party[6] Policy Analysis - "Trump 2.0" suggests a more aggressive fiscal policy with potential tax cuts and increased tariffs, while Harris's policies continue the Biden administration's approach with a focus on social spending[18][20] - Both candidates exhibit significant differences in immigration and energy policies, with Trump favoring stricter measures and traditional energy, while Harris supports renewable energy initiatives[19][20] - The commonality between both candidates is the expectation of fiscal expansion, which may lead to increased debt and inflationary pressures[4] Market Implications - Historical data indicates that the S&P 500 tends to perform better in the latter half of election years, with an average increase of 14.46% compared to 8.71% in non-election years[22] - The upcoming election is expected to create volatility in financial markets, necessitating a defensive investment strategy amid geopolitical uncertainties and economic slowdowns[13] - The bond market is anticipated to reflect a downward trend in yields, influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts and economic deceleration[15]