铁矿行业周度报告：海外发运量小幅增长，矿价在供增需弱下震荡下行

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore industry is "Recommended" [3] Core Viewpoints - Overseas iron ore shipments have seen a slight increase, with both shipment and arrival volumes maintaining near three-year highs, while demand remains weak, leading to a loosening supply-demand balance [4] - The current steel market is still in the off-season, with steel prices under pressure and steel companies facing significant losses, resulting in weak production willingness and a continuous decline in daily molten iron output [4] - Despite the weak demand for iron ore, the current valuation is relatively low, suggesting limited downside potential for prices, with expectations of a rebound in September as the market transitions into the peak season [4] Supply Summary - For the week of August 10-16, 2024, the total iron ore shipment from Australia and Brazil reached 23.742 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.03%, with Australia contributing 16.571 million tons (up 5.19%) and Brazil 7.171 million tons (up 1.44%) [1][6] - The total iron ore arrival volume at 26 Chinese ports was 22.594 million tons, a slight increase of 0.83% week-on-week, indicating a recovery from previous declines [1][6] - The port inventory of imported iron ore remained stable at 150.44 million tons, with a slight decrease of 8.86 thousand tons, while steel mill inventory increased by 0.27% to 90.6998 million tons [5][6] Demand Summary - The average daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel companies was 2.8049 million tons, down 1.16% week-on-week, while the average daily molten iron output decreased to 2.2877 million tons, a decline of 1.26% [2][7] - The capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces was 85.92%, down 1.1 percentage points, and the operating rate was 78.84%, down 1.37 percentage points [2][7] - The profitability of steel companies further declined to 4.76%, indicating an expanding loss margin [2][7] Price Summary - The average iron ore price index (62% Fe: CFR: Qingdao Port) for the week was $95.4 per ton, a decrease of $6.18 per ton or 6.08% week-on-week, reflecting the ongoing pressure from weak demand [2][7] - The expectation is for continued weak fundamentals in the iron ore market, with prices likely to remain under pressure in the short term [4]