中国经济评论：7月经济显示不平衡复苏

Economic Performance - July industrial production (IP) growth slowed to 5.1% YoY, slightly below the consensus expectation of 5.2% YoY[4] - Retail sales growth increased to 2.7% YoY, surpassing the consensus expectation of 2.6% YoY[4] - Fixed-asset investment (FAI) grew 1.9% YoY, marking one of the slowest growth months in the past five years[4] Sector Insights - Manufacturing investment saw solid growth of 8.3% YoY, driven by industrial upgrades and high-tech industries[4] - Real estate investment contracted by 10.8% YoY, continuing to be a significant drag on overall investment growth[4] - Infrastructure investment growth slowed to 5.6% YoY, with traditional infrastructure investment at 2.0% YoY[4] Housing Market - Property sales showed slight stabilization, with a smaller YoY decline in July compared to previous months[5] - High inventory levels continue to pressure housing prices, necessitating policy interventions for supply-demand equilibrium[5] - New home prices fell 0.7% MoM, while second-hand home prices decreased by 0.8% MoM[4] Policy Outlook - Macro policy is expected to remain accommodative, with potential for increased fiscal support in the second half of 2024[5] - Rising food prices may constrain further monetary easing in the near term, as indicated in the July Politburo meeting[5] - Core inflation remains low at around 0.5% YoY, despite a rise in CPI to 0.5% YoY driven by food prices[4]