Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "OUTPERFORM" rating for China BlueChemical [3][4]. Core Views - China BlueChemical is a leading player in the domestic fertilizer and methanol industry, with significant contributions from acrylonitrile capacity release to profits [2][4]. - The company has a total designed capacity of 1.84 million tons of urea, 1 million tons of phosphate compound fertilizer, 1.4 million tons of methanol, and 270,000 tons of acrylonitrile products as of December 31, 2023 [6][8]. Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 12.84 billion, a decrease of 2% from the previous year, with net profit expected to drop by 50% to RMB 1.20 billion [4][11]. - The company reported a net profit of RMB 6.22 billion in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decline of 19.79% due to lower sales volumes and prices of key products [11][12]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) is expected to remain stable at around 15.9% for 2024, with a gradual increase to 16.9% by 2026 [4][24]. Product Performance - The company’s main products include urea, phosphate compound fertilizers, and methanol, which together accounted for approximately 81.72% of total revenue in the first half of 2024 [15][16]. - The acrylonitrile project was successfully completed in 2023, achieving a capacity utilization rate of 70.60% in the first half of 2024, generating sales revenue of RMB 825 million, a 258% increase year-on-year [17][18]. Market Position - China BlueChemical is a subsidiary of China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), which provides it with favorable conditions for stable and cost-effective raw material sourcing [8][10]. - The company actively explores international markets, with fertilizer exports increasing by 80% in 2023 [17][18]. Shareholder Information - As of December 31, 2023, CNOOC holds a 59.41% stake in China BlueChemical, making it the largest shareholder [10][19]. - The company has a history of returning value to shareholders, with a dividend payout ratio averaging around 40% in recent years [10][19].
中海石油化学：首次覆盖：国内化肥和甲醇行业龙头，丙烯腈产能释放贡献利润