Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xpeng Motors (XPEV.US/9868.HK) with a target price of $8.5, representing a potential upside of 26% for the US stock, and a target price of HKD 33.2 for the Hong Kong stock, indicating a potential upside of 23% [6][10]. Core Insights - Xpeng Motors is set to enter a strong product cycle with the upcoming launch of the MONA series M03, which has already surpassed pre-sale orders compared to the previous year's G6 model. The company expects to deliver over 20,000 units in September following the M03 launch, with a record delivery volume anticipated in Q4 2024 [6][14]. - The gross margin for Q2 2024 improved to 14.0%, marking a continuous improvement over four quarters. This is attributed to cost reductions through technology advancements and supply chain reforms, alongside rapid growth in overseas business [6][14]. - The company has established a strategic partnership with Volkswagen, which will see jointly developed EE architecture in domestic Volkswagen models starting in 2026. Xpeng aims to provide near Level 3 autonomous driving experience by the second half of 2025 [6][14]. Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 40,042 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 31%. The gross margin is expected to stabilize at around 13.0% for 2024, improving to 15.0% in 2025 and 17.0% in 2026 [8][15]. - The company reported a net loss of RMB 6,016 million for 2024, with a significant reduction in losses expected in subsequent years, reaching a profit of RMB 1,746 million by 2026 [8][15]. - The report indicates that Xpeng's valuation is currently attractive at 0.8x, which is considered low compared to historical levels [6][14].
小鹏汽车-W：毛利率表现趋稳，新车型上市步入强产品周期