彭博-2024年全球ESG展望报告

ESG Market Overview - ESG investment is expected to reach $40 trillion by 2030, with Europe leading and the US facing challenges due to political resistance [5] - 85$40 trillion by 2030, despite a 70% slowdown in growth, with Europe remaining the largest contributor [10] - ESG assets showed resilience in 2022, reaching $30 trillion, with Europe rebounding to$14 trillion and Japan surging 50% to $4 trillion [11] - By 2030, Europe is expected to maintain a 45$5 trillion by 2030, driven primarily by green loans [13] ESG ETF Trends - ESG ETF inflows are expected to favor Europe in 2024, while the US may see stagnation due to concentration risks [17] - Europe led global ESG ETF inflows in 2023, with $44 billion, while the Americas saw outflows of$4 billion [18] - The US ESG ETF market is highly concentrated, with 31% of assets held by 11 major investors, leading to cyclical volatility [20] - Japan's ESG ETF inflows grew by 38% in 2023, driven by a single fund, the iShares MSCI Japan Climate Action ETF [23] ESG Quantitative Strategies - ESG high-scoring stocks in the US and Europe have shown lower drawdowns compared to low-scoring stocks, indicating reduced downside risk [24] - ESG scores and carbon intensity have become less predictive of stock performance in recent years, though ESG factors still enhance fundamentals [25] - High ESG scores in the Stoxx 600 and S&P 500 have historically led to better risk-adjusted returns, particularly in the "environment" and "social" pillars [26] ESG Fund Regulations - EU's SFDR may undergo significant revisions post-2024 elections, with 76% of market participants calling for clearer product categorization [31] - The UK's SDR and taxonomy are set to drive green finance strategies, with fund labeling rules taking effect in July 2024 [33] - US ESG fund rules may face delays until 2025 or later, with the SEC prioritizing climate risk disclosures over ESG fund regulations [36] - Japan's FSA may tighten ESG fund transparency requirements, potentially mandating disclosures on ESG methodologies and fund manager qualifications [38] ESG Corporate Rules - ISSB standards are becoming a global benchmark for ESG disclosures, with core climate disclosures prioritized and Scope 3 emissions reporting delayed [41] - EU's CSRD has introduced over 500 metrics, with phased implementation to allow companies time to adapt [42] - US climate disclosure rules face uncertainty due to the 2024 election, with potential legal challenges and delays in finalizing Scope 3 requirements [44] - Over two-thirds of Hong Kong-listed companies may struggle to meet mandatory climate disclosure requirements, even with a one-year delay to 2026 [46] ESG Governance Trends - US shareholder proposals on environmental and social issues are expected to hit record highs in 2024, driven by relaxed submission rules [52] - Labor and reproductive rights proposals are gaining traction in the US, with support rates for diversity-related proposals declining [53] - European CEO pay controversies may ease in 2024 as living costs stabilize, though scrutiny on performance metrics linked to ESG remains high [54] - Climate-related shareholder proposals continue to attract attention, with companies like Shell and Glencore facing pressure to align with Paris Agreement goals [55] Climate Opportunities and Key Industries - Catastrophe bonds and clean utilities are expected to benefit from climate-related price surges, with alternative energy M&A activity on the rise [70] - Disaster preparedness and recovery companies saw a 63% outperformance over the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index in the past five years [71] - Catastrophe bonds delivered a 19.69% return in 2023, outperforming high-yield bonds over the past decade [72] - Low-carbon intensity utilities like PSEG and NextEra are poised to lead, with a 32% outperformance over higher-emission peers in the past five years [73] Workforce, Cybersecurity, and Other Key Topics - Cybersecurity risks are escalating, with companies facing increased pressure to strengthen defenses and comply with new breach disclosure rules [78] - Misleading marketing practices are under scrutiny, with stricter regulations on data privacy, greenwashing, and influencer marketing expected in 2024 [80] - Greenwashing incidents have increased tenfold over the past five years, with potential fines of up to 10% of global turnover in the UK [81] - Labor market pressures are easing, but wage growth remains high, with increased shareholder activism on labor-related issues [82] - Automation is reshaping the workforce, with potential benefits for efficiency and safety, but also risks of employee displacement [83] - Biodiversity is gaining traction as a key ESG theme, with more capital expected to flow into nature-related projects in 2024 [85]