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中国在半导体方面有多创新?
ITIF·2024-08-22 07:40

Industry Overview - The global semiconductor industry is a 527billionmarket,expectedtogrowto527 billion market, expected to grow to 1 trillion by 2030, with over 70 new fabs projected to be built worldwide by 2030 to meet demand [7] - The semiconductor production process is highly complex, involving chip design, fabrication, and back-end assembly, test, and packaging (ATP), supported by key inputs like electronic design automation (EDA) software and semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) [8] - The industry is fiercely contested among nations, with China, the EU, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the US leading the competition [7] China's Semiconductor Industry - China lags behind global leaders in most aspects of semiconductor design and fabrication, particularly in advanced-node logic chips and SME, with a gap of about five years in leading-edge logic chips and even more in SME [6][20] - China has made progress in certain areas, such as the design of AI chips and mobile phone chips, with Huawei's Mate 60 Pro smartphone showcasing a 7nm chip that is only 18 months behind global competitors [32][34] - China's semiconductor industry is rapidly closing the gap, with significant investments and innovation efforts, particularly in mature-node chips, where China is expected to account for 39% of global production by 2027 [41] Key Subsectors Electronic Design Automation (EDA) - China has targeted progress in EDA since the Made in China 2025 initiative, with Huawei achieving breakthroughs in EDA software for 14nm and above processes, reducing reliance on foreign suppliers [27] - Chinese EDA companies like Empyrean Technology have made strides, with Empyrean claiming to support 7nm digital processes and 5nm analog processes, though full coverage of digital circuit processes remains a challenge [27] Semiconductor Design and Fabrication - China's semiconductor design industry has grown rapidly, with the number of design firms increasing nearly sixfold from 2010 to 2022, reaching total sales of 557.4 billion yuan (76.7billion)in2023[29]ChinesefirmsareactivelyembracingRISCVtechnology,withover100significantcompaniesand100startupsdesigningchipswithRISCV,aimingtoreducerelianceonWesternchipIPandarchitectures[30]MemoryChipsChinasmemorychipmanufacturers,suchasYMTCandCXMT,havemadesignificantstridesbutfacechallengesduetoexportcontrolsandlackofaccesstoadvancedtooling,withYMTCsglobalmarketshareexpectedtodeclinefrom3176.7 billion) in 2023 [29] - Chinese firms are actively embracing RISC-V technology, with over 100 significant companies and 100 startups designing chips with RISC-V, aiming to reduce reliance on Western chip IP and architectures [30] Memory Chips - China's memory chip manufacturers, such as YMTC and CXMT, have made significant strides but face challenges due to export controls and lack of access to advanced tooling, with YMTC's global market share expected to decline from 31% in 2023 to 18% by 2024 [47] - CXMT is racing to produce China's first domestic high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for AI computing, though it lags behind global rivals in DRAM technology [47] Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment (SME) - China's efforts to catch up in lithography, a crucial step in chipmaking, have been ongoing since 2008, but Chinese firms remain years behind industry leaders like ASML, Nikon, and Canon [49] - SMEE Group, China's leading lithography developer, claimed to have developed a 28nm lithography machine in 2023, representing a major leap but still behind global leaders producing 2nm or sub-2nm chips [49] Semiconductor Assembly, Test, and Packaging (ATP) - China accounts for 27% of the world's ATP facilities, with Chinese firms commanding 38% of the market by August 2023, led by companies like JCET, HT-Tch, and TF [52] - Packaging is becoming a key part of semiconductor production, with Chinese firms using chiplet design and advanced packaging technologies, though they still lag in leading-edge ATP capabilities [52] Innovation and R&D - China's semiconductor industry has a lower R&D intensity (7.6%) compared to the US (18.8%) and the EU (15%), though Huawei leads Chinese firms with an R&D intensity of 25.2% [56][57] - Chinese researchers have made significant strides in scientific publications, with seven institutions ranking in the global top 20 for advanced IC design and fabrication publications [60] - China accounted for 55% of global semiconductor patent applications in 2021-2022, more than doubling the number of applications from the US, though the grant rate for Chinese patents is lower than that of Japan and South Korea [62][63] Company Case Studies Biren - Biren Technology, founded in 2019, focuses on developing general computing systems and AI chips, with its BR100 GPU chip setting a global computing power record and adopting chiplet technology [70][71] - Biren has secured significant funding and partnerships with top universities, though US export controls have slowed its progress, with the company turning to SMIC for chip fabrication [73] SMIC - SMIC, China's largest contract chipmaker, has developed 7nm technology without access to Western equipment, though it faces challenges in high-volume manufacturing at sub-28nm levels [75][76] - SMIC has invested heavily in R&D, with 197.5 million spent in Q4 2022, and has built an innovation ecosystem through collaborations with industry and academia [78] China's Semiconductor Strategy - China's semiconductor strategy, driven by the National IC Plan and Made in China 2025, aims for self-sufficiency and global leadership by 2030, with over $150 billion in government subsidies invested since 2014 [79][82] - China is aggressively subsidizing its semiconductor industry, with state subsidies accounting for over 40% of SMIC's revenues from 2014 to 2018, significantly higher than global competitors like TSMC and Intel [80] - China is pushing for import substitution, with directives to replace foreign processors in telecommunications systems by 2027 and increase purchases from local auto chipmakers [82]