美股教育2024年春季业绩综述：供需有序修复，龙头稳健迈入新周期

Industry Overview - The education industry, particularly the after-school training sector, has entered a new operational cycle after a year of transformation and post-pandemic recovery, with expectations for a strong performance in the 2025 summer season [2][5] - The operating environment has stabilized, leading to enhanced earnings certainty, with revenue growth gradually aligning with company guidance and market expectations [5][12] - The regulatory environment for after-school training has moved towards legalization, with the industry developing orderly under normalized supervision [8][23] New Oriental (EDU) - New Oriental's revenue has surpassed pre-double reduction levels, with FY2024 revenue expected to reach $4.31 billion, equivalent to 101% of FY2021 revenue [6][15] - The company has diversified its business into five major segments, including overseas exam preparation, high school tutoring, and new education businesses such as non-academic training and smart learning hardware [14][15] - As of May 31, 2024, New Oriental has approximately 1,025 schools and teaching points nationwide, recovering to 61% of the 2021 level [6][15] TAL Education (TAL) - TAL Education's revenue in FY2024 reached $1.49 billion, equivalent to 33% of FY2021 revenue, but the company is growing at a rapid pace with a 50% YoY growth in 1Q FY2025 [7][19] - The company focuses on K9 non-academic training and has made strategic investments in AI education models and consumer electronics, such as smart learning devices [7][19] - As of FY2024, TAL has approximately 279 learning centers, recovering to 25% of the FY2021 level, with a rapid expansion expected to reach around 400 centers by May 2024 [19][21] Industry Outlook - The after-school training industry is expected to see innovative and high-quality growth, driven by new educational services and smart products under the national strategy of building a strong education system [8][23] - Key players to watch include New Oriental (EDU), TAL Education (TAL), Gaotu (GOTU), and Youdao (DAO), which are leveraging their experience and technological advancements to capture new opportunities [8][23] Policy and Regulatory Environment - The regulatory framework for after-school training has been strengthened, with policies such as the "Double Reduction" policy and the "Regulations on the Administration of After-school Training (Draft for Comment)" shaping the industry's development [24][25] - The industry is transitioning towards a more regulated and standardized environment, with clear guidelines on the classification of academic and non-academic training [24][25]