日本医药行业比较研究系列三：日本国民医疗费及药价政策趋势分析

Japanese Pharmaceutical Industry Overview - The Japanese pharmaceutical index (TP17PHRM) reflects the overall performance of the pharmaceutical sector, with 46 listed companies excluding drugstores and dispensing pharmacies [2][3] - The Nikkei 225 index includes 13 pharmaceutical companies, with 9 in pharmaceuticals, biotech, and life sciences, and 4 in healthcare equipment and services [2] - The TOPIX index covers 103 pharmaceutical companies, including 38 in pharmaceuticals, biotech, and life sciences, and 65 in healthcare equipment and services [2] Market Performance and Economic Factors - The Japanese pharmaceutical index tends to outperform the broader market during economic downturns and when drug price reduction expectations are moderate [7] - The Nikkei 225 index has shown a long-term positive correlation with yen depreciation, with the index rising as the yen weakened from 2010 onwards [5] - In 2024, the Bank of Japan raised policy rates by 15 basis points to 0.15%-0.25%, leading to yen appreciation and a decline in Japanese stocks [5] Pharmaceutical Market Structure - Japan's pharmaceutical market size remained stable at $73.7 billion in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.8% from 2015 to 2023 [31] - The hospital market share increased from 41% to 47% during this period, while clinic and pharmacy markets showed slight declines [31] - In contrast, China's pharmaceutical market grew from $190.5 billion to $259.8 billion from 2015 to 2023, with a CAGR of 4.0% [31] Drug Pricing and Innovation - Japan's drug pricing system is non-market based, with the Central Social Insurance Medical Council (CSIMC) responsible for pricing and adjustments [35] - Innovative drugs can receive price premiums based on factors such as novelty (70-120%), efficacy (5-60%), and market demand (5-20%) [38] - Japan's patented drug prices are approximately 1/5th of US prices, while generic drug prices are twice as high as in the US [39] International Comparisons - Japan's healthcare expenditure reached ¥45 trillion in 2021, accounting for 8.2% of GDP, with 38% funded by government investment [15][17] - In comparison, China's healthcare expenditure was ¥8.5 trillion in 2022, with 28% coming from government funding [18] - Japan's per capita healthcare spending was $2,314 in 2021, significantly higher than China's $742 [21] Industry Challenges and Opportunities - Long-term cost control measures have led to delayed drug approvals in Japan, with 72% of drugs approved in Europe and the US remaining unapproved in Japan as of 2020 [40] - 13% of drugs in Japan's health insurance formulary faced supply restrictions, and 12% experienced supply interruptions in 2023 [41] - The Japanese government is implementing measures to encourage innovation, including maintaining prices for innovative drugs during patent periods and accelerating new drug introductions [44] Corporate Performance - Takeda Pharmaceutical had the highest overseas revenue ratio among Japanese pharmaceutical companies at 89% in FY2023 [11] - Other companies with significant overseas revenue include Olympus (74%), Sysmex (63%), and Astellas (54%) [12] - The share of Japanese companies in the top 20 pharmaceutical sales rankings declined from 45% in 2015 to 40% in 2023 [42]