日本乳品行业发展历史复盘：创新为基 逆势增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the Japanese dairy industry, emphasizing the potential for growth through product functionality and deep processing [4][6]. Core Insights - The Japanese dairy industry is experiencing a historical review, with a focus on innovation-driven growth despite challenges such as an aging population and economic slowdown [4][6]. - The report highlights that while the overall consumption of basic dairy products may face growth bottlenecks, segments like cheese and yogurt show significant potential for expansion [4][6]. - The competitive landscape in Japan is characterized by a stable oligopoly, with leading companies like Meiji, Morinaga, and Snow Brand dominating various segments [4][6][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Japanese Dairy Development Direction: Functional and High-Value Innovation - Japan's dairy industry is heavily reliant on imports, with approximately 37% of its dairy product demand met through imports [13]. - The upstream milk supply is monopolized by the "designated production group system," which places dairy processing companies in a price-taking position [15]. - The distribution channels have evolved significantly, with convenience stores gaining substantial power, necessitating continuous innovation from dairy manufacturers to maintain competitiveness [19][20]. 2. Consumption Trends: Declining Total Consumption but Growth in Yogurt and Cheese - Since the 1990s, Japan's dairy consumption has shifted towards negative growth, with yogurt and cheese continuing to show growth trends [22][23]. - The compound annual growth rates (CAGR) from 1990 to 2020 for white milk, dairy beverages, and yogurt were -0.97%, 0.95%, and 4.23% respectively [22][32]. - Cheese consumption has increased from 205,000 tons in 1995 to 355,000 tons in 2020, with a CAGR of 2.2% [34]. 3. Price Trends: Stagnation in Consumption Upgrades - The Japanese dairy market has struggled with price growth due to a deflationary environment since the 1990s, with average price increases for various dairy products remaining low [41]. - The average Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth from 1990 to 2020 for dairy products, fresh milk, yogurt, and fermented dairy drinks was 0.32%, 0.45%, -0.4%, and 1.06% respectively [41]. 4. Yogurt: Continuous Innovation Driving Growth - The Japanese yogurt industry has thrived due to continuous innovation and effective consumer education, allowing leading companies to achieve market premiums [48].