【NIFD季报】房市调整要多久？——2024Q2中国宏观金融

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The domestic economy in China is experiencing a recovery, with manufacturing investment and exports being the main drivers of growth, while internal demand remains weak and the real estate market is undergoing a deep adjustment [4][6] - The adjustment in the real estate market is compared to historical crises in the US and Japan, highlighting the differences in monetary policy responses and their impacts on economic recovery [4][17] - The report identifies three significant changes that China will face in the near future: a new round of institutional reforms, technological changes brought by artificial intelligence, and a new wave of political polarization and de-globalization [4][52] Summary by Sections Section 1: Economic Overview - In the first half of the year, domestic economic recovery continued, with manufacturing investment and exports supporting growth, while internal demand remained weak [6] - The contribution of net exports to GDP rebounded from -11% to 14%, while fixed asset investment's contribution slightly decreased from 29% to 26% [6] - Real estate investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline from 8% to 10%, and final consumption expenditure's contribution to GDP dropped from 83% to 61% [6] Section 2: Real Estate Crisis - Comparisons and Insights - The current domestic real estate market is in an adjustment phase rather than a crisis, with price declines not uniform across cities [17] - Historical comparisons with Japan's and the US's real estate crises reveal that both were triggered by economic stagnation and monetary stimulus [18][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of monetary policy's lagging effects, as seen in both Japan and the US during their respective crises [22][25] Section 3: Monetary Policy Responses to the Real Estate Crisis - The report compares conventional and unconventional monetary policies adopted by the US and Japan during their real estate crises, noting that the US acted more decisively [40][43] - It highlights the challenges faced by China in implementing effective monetary policy, particularly in maintaining currency stability while addressing real estate issues [40][42] - The report discusses the implications of local government debt and the need for careful monitoring of the real estate market's impact on broader economic stability [49][51] Section 4: Anticipating Major Changes Ahead - The report outlines three major changes that China will face: institutional reforms, technological advancements from AI, and political polarization affecting globalization [52][53] - It stresses the urgency of addressing real estate issues to prevent further economic challenges, especially in light of potential external pressures from the US elections [52]