Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance relative to the market [4]. Core Insights - The company's H1 2024 results met expectations, with total revenue of 14.66 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 61.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 32.1%. The gross margin improved to 13.5%, with a significant reduction in net loss to 2.65 billion RMB, down 24.9% year-on-year [4]. - The partnership with Volkswagen is expected to enhance profitability, with technology service fees contributing significantly in Q3. The company anticipates further improvements in gross margin and profitability due to this collaboration [4]. - The sales structure has optimized, with total deliveries of 52,000 units in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 25.6%. The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle rose to 237,600 RMB, driven by higher sales of the premium X9 model [4]. - A new product cycle is set to begin with the launch of the MONA M03, which is expected to drive revenue growth over the next three years. The upcoming P7+ model is also anticipated to enhance profitability [4]. - The company is accelerating its international expansion, with successful entries into European and Southeast Asian markets, which are expected to contribute significantly to future profitability [4]. - Revenue forecasts have been adjusted downwards for 2024-2026, with expected revenues of 38.2 billion RMB, 62.7 billion RMB, and 81.2 billion RMB respectively. Net losses are projected to decrease, with a forecasted profit of 392 million RMB by 2026 [5][6]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 38.2 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25%. The net loss is expected to be 6.18 billion RMB, a 40% improvement compared to the previous year [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to improve from -5.96 RMB in 2023 to -3.28 RMB in 2024, indicating a gradual recovery in profitability [5][6].
小鹏汽车-W：半年报符合预期，向上拐点即将到来