Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China National Heavy Duty Truck Group Co., Ltd. (3808 HK) with a target price of HKD 26.49, indicating a potential upside of 28.9% from the current closing price of HKD 20.55 [2][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a robust performance in the first half of 2024, with revenue increasing by 18.0% year-on-year to RMB 4.88 billion and net profit rising by 39.8% to RMB 3.29 billion, aligning with market expectations [2]. - The market share of China National Heavy Duty Truck in the heavy truck segment improved significantly, reaching 27.6%, up 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, driven by strong demand for natural gas heavy trucks [2][5]. - The company has initiated a mid-term dividend plan, distributing RMB 0.66 per share, with a payout ratio of 55%, an increase from previous years [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected to reach RMB 101.7 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 19.0% [3][7]. - Net profit is expected to grow to RMB 6.44 billion in 2024, reflecting a 21.0% increase compared to 2023 [3][7]. - The gross margin is forecasted to stabilize around 16.9% in 2024, with operating profit margin improving to 7.9% [7]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned to benefit from the heavy truck replacement demand, particularly in the natural gas segment, which saw a remarkable 273% increase in sales year-on-year [2][5]. - The report emphasizes the attractiveness of the company's valuation and the potential for further dividend increases in the future [2][3].
中国重汽：重卡以旧换新和高股息标的，维持买入