全球宏观：如何看待近15年来最大下修的非农年度基准修订？

Employment Data Revision - The non-farm annual benchmark revision for the period from April 2023 to March 2024 shows a downward adjustment of approximately 818,000 jobs, marking the largest adjustment in 15 years[1] - Monthly non-farm job additions were revised down from 246,000 to 178,000[1] Benchmark Revision Process - The annual benchmark revision is conducted by comparing the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey data with tax records covering about 97% of non-farm employment[2] - The current data represents the preliminary revision, with final values expected to be published in February 2025[2] Market Reaction - The market showed limited reaction to the significant downward revision due to prior expectations of a range between 300,000 to 1,000,000 jobs[4] - The revision reflects data from the past and does not indicate future employment trends, with current focus on recent employment data[4] Factors Influencing Data Quality - A decline in CES survey response rates since 2019 has increased sampling errors, affecting monthly data quality[5] - The influx of illegal immigrants may have inflated job numbers in monthly data, as they are not included in unemployment insurance records used for annual revisions[5] Economic Implications - The benchmark revision supports the case for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a 66% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September[7] - Recent economic indicators, such as non-manufacturing PMI and retail data, have alleviated recession concerns, influencing market expectations[7] Job Sector Adjustments - The largest sector adjustments included professional and business services (-358,000), retail trade (-129,000), and manufacturing (-115,000)[8] - The total non-farm employment adjustment represents a 0.5% decrease, higher than the 0.3% adjustment in 2019[10]