交通运输行业2024下半年展望：周期为矛，价值为盾

Investment Rating - The report recommends the shipping sector with geopolitical risk premium and highlights the investment value of road, rail, and port assets due to declining expected returns [3][11][14]. Core Viewpoints - The current international situation remains unstable, with geopolitical risks persisting and domestic macroeconomic indicators needing improvement. The report suggests focusing on the shipping sector and safety assets with resource monopolies, such as roads, railways, and ports [3][11]. - The shipping market is expected to see a favorable supply-demand balance in the medium term, particularly in bulk and oil shipping, with the third quarter being a traditional peak season [3][14][28]. - The report emphasizes the stable cash flow and attractive dividends of road, rail, and port companies, which enhance their investment value amid declining expected returns [3][15][33]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - The report highlights the ongoing geopolitical risks and the need for investment in sectors that can provide risk premiums, particularly in shipping and infrastructure [11][14]. - Domestic macroeconomic indicators are under pressure, with manufacturing PMI remaining in contraction territory and consumer price index (CPI) growth at a low level [11][12]. Shipping - Bulk shipping is expected to have a favorable supply-demand balance, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.7% for global dry bulk shipping trade from 2023 to 2028 [3][24]. - Oil shipping is also anticipated to perform well, with a significant increase in the order book for oil tankers, indicating a positive outlook for the market [3][28]. Road, Rail, and Ports - Road transport shows steady growth in passenger and freight demand, with stable pricing and cash flow [3][33]. - Rail transport has seen a recovery in passenger numbers and stable freight volumes, indicating strong domestic travel demand [3][37]. - Port operations are experiencing growth in cargo throughput, with significant increases in foreign trade and container throughput [3][15]. Express Delivery - The Southeast Asian and emerging markets for express delivery are still in the early stages of development, presenting investment opportunities for companies looking to expand internationally [3][16]. - The report notes a high growth rate in cross-border e-commerce transactions in Southeast Asia, with a CAGR of 40.4% from 2018 to 2022 [3][16].