Deye(SH:605117) Guolian Securities·2024-08-28 10:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][9]. Core Views - In H1 2024, the company benefited from a significant increase in inverter demand in emerging markets such as Pakistan, India, the Philippines, and Myanmar due to severe power shortages and policy support, which helped offset declines in the South African market [3][9]. - The company's differentiated layout in emerging markets is expected to lead to further sales growth [3][9]. - The traditional business showed strong growth, with the energy storage battery pack business expected to contribute to new growth [9]. Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.748 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.97%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.236 billion yuan, down 2.21% year-on-year [9]. - In Q2 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.864 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.98% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 52.06%, with a net profit of 803 million yuan, up 18.97% year-on-year and 85.44% quarter-on-quarter [9]. - The inverter business revenue in H1 2024 was 2.322 billion yuan, down 26.06% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced power shortages in South Africa and increased market competition [9]. - The energy storage battery pack business revenue was 765 million yuan, up 74.82% year-on-year, benefiting from high integration, safety, and long cycle life of products [9]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 12.593 billion yuan, 15.852 billion yuan, and 19.220 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 68.36%, 25.88%, and 21.25% [9][10]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2.938 billion yuan, 3.661 billion yuan, and 4.331 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 64.06%, 24.58%, and 18.30% [9][10]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 4.60 yuan, 5.74 yuan, and 6.79 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with a three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34.22% [9][10].