2024年中国显示面板行业系列报告（二）：市场篇-面板行业的第五次繁荣周期是否已至？

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the display panel industry [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The global display panel industry is experiencing a shift from LCD to OLED technology, with OLED expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.3% from 2023 to 2028, compared to LCD's 1.4% growth rate [2][4][5] - China dominates the global LCD market, accounting for 73% of production in 2023, but growth is expected to slow due to limited new factory construction and weak downstream demand [3][6][7] - OLED production in China is projected to grow rapidly, with a CAGR of 37.7% from 2023 to 2028, driven by low-price strategies and applications in automotive and other sectors [3][6][14] Global Display Panel Production - Global LCD production is forecasted to grow from 2.9 billion square meters in 2023 to 3.0 billion square meters in 2028, with a CAGR of 1.4% [2][4][5] - Global OLED production is expected to increase from 197 million square meters in 2023 to 307 million square meters in 2028, with a CAGR of 9.3% [2][4][5] - China is the primary driver of global LCD production growth, while other countries are reducing capacity due to outdated production lines [2][4][5] China Display Panel Production - China's LCD production is projected to grow from 208 million square meters in 2023 to 244 million square meters in 2028, with a CAGR of 3.2% [3][6][7] - China's OLED production is expected to surge from 4.5 million square meters in 2023 to 22.3 million square meters in 2028, with a CAGR of 37.7% [3][6][14] - The growth in China's OLED market is supported by increasing demand for small and medium-sized OLED panels, particularly in the smartphone and automotive sectors [3][6][14] Large-Size LCD Panels - BOE, TCL CSOT, and HKC are expected to maintain their leading positions in the global LCD TV panel market, with BOE projected to ship 61.3 million panels in 2024 [11][12] - HKC will focus on large-size panels, particularly those above 80 inches, to increase supply area and compete with other major players [11][12] - The exit of Korean manufacturers from the LCD market has further consolidated China's dominance, with Chinese companies expected to account for nearly 80% of global LCD panel shipments by 2025 [11][12] OLED Panel Production - China's OLED production is heavily influenced by customer demand, with key players like BOE and TCL CSOT relying on orders from major clients such as Apple and Xiaomi [14][15] - The penetration rate of OLED panels in smartphones has exceeded 50%, while adoption in laptops, tablets, and TVs remains low due to cost sensitivity [16][20] - BOE and Samsung are investing in 8.6-generation OLED production lines, which are expected to reduce manufacturing costs and increase the adoption of OLED panels in medium and large-size applications [16][18][20] Medium and Large-Size OLED Panels - Existing OLED production lines are primarily focused on small-size panels, but new 8.6-generation lines are being developed to cater to medium and large-size applications [16][18][20] - BOE's 8.6-generation OLED production line in Chengdu is expected to begin mass production in 2026, targeting IT devices and potentially increasing the supply of medium and large-size OLED panels [18][20] - The growth of medium and large-size OLED panels is expected to be driven by applications in TVs and gaming monitors, with limited demand from the automotive sector [16][20]