Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for JD Logistics [3][5] Core Insights - In H1 2024, JD Logistics recorded a revenue of RMB 86.3 billion, an increase of 11.0%, with a Non-IFRS net profit of RMB 3.1 billion, reflecting a significant increase of 2631% [6] - The company achieved a Non-IFRS net profit margin of 3.6%, up 3.5 percentage points from 0.1% in 2023 [6] - For Q2 2024, revenue was RMB 44.2 billion, a 7.7% increase, and Non-IFRS net profit was RMB 2.456 billion, up 197.4% [6] - The profitability improved significantly in Q2, with a Non-IFRS net profit margin of 5.6%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points from 2.0% in the same period of 2023 [6] - The company expects total revenue in 2024 to reach RMB 180.98 billion, an increase of 8.6%, with a Non-IFRS net profit margin of 2.6% [6] - The valuation method is shifting from PS to PE, with an estimated net profit of RMB 4.755 billion for 2024, suggesting a target price of HKD 14.61 based on a reasonable valuation of 18X [6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 180.98 billion, with a growth rate of 8.6% [5] - Non-IFRS net profit is expected to be RMB 4.755 billion, with a Non-IFRS net profit margin of 2.6% [5] - The company’s gross margin is forecasted to improve from 7.6% in 2023 to 9.4% in 2024, reaching 12.0% by 2026 [5] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 5.8% in 2023 to 9.5% in 2024, and further to 16.0% by 2026 [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 19 in 2023 to 12 in 2024, and further down to 6 by 2026 [5]
京东物流：24Q2降本增效成果显著，利润率提升超预期