2024-08-29 01:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price adjusted to 500 HKD [1][3]. Core Insights - The company's Q2 revenue met expectations, with adjusted net profit and EBITDA exceeding market expectations by 39% and 9% respectively. The hotel booking volume on the Chinese site increased by 20% year-on-year, while international OTA platform revenue surged by 70% [1][2]. - The report highlights the company's strong competitive advantages and agile operations, leading to a high degree of profit certainty [1][3]. Financial Performance - Q2 net revenue reached 12.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7%, aligning with market expectations. Adjusted net profit was 5 billion RMB, up 45% year-on-year, surpassing expectations by 44% and 39% respectively [2][3]. - The adjusted EBITDA for Q2 was 4.4 billion RMB, exceeding expectations by 10% and 9%, with a corresponding EBITDA margin of 35%, reflecting an increase of 2 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. Business Segments - Domestic hotel and flight bookings showed normalized growth, with hotel bookings on the Chinese site increasing by 20% year-on-year. The average daily rate (ADR) for hotels decreased due to increased supply [2][3]. - The international OTA business is progressing steadily, with Trip.com’s total revenue in Q2 increasing by approximately 70%, contributing about 10.5% to total revenue [2][3]. Future Outlook - Management guidance for July and August indicates that outbound flight and hotel bookings are expected to exceed 2019 levels by 10-20%, with domestic hotel bookings also showing double-digit year-on-year growth [3][19]. - The report maintains the 2024 revenue forecast at 52.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 17%, while adjusting the full-year adjusted net profit forecast up by 11% to 16.2 billion RMB [3][19].