Deye(605117) 中银证券·2024-08-29 03:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 87.02 [1] - The sector rating is Outperform [1] Core Views - The company's Q2 2024 performance showed significant recovery, with net profit attributable to the parent company increasing by 18.97% YoY and 85.44% QoQ [3] - Inverter shipments increased by 7.77% YoY in H1 2024, driven by strong demand in emerging markets such as Pakistan, India, Philippines, and Myanmar [3] - The energy storage battery pack segment saw a 74.82% YoY revenue increase in H1 2024, benefiting from global demand for residential energy storage products [3] - The home appliance business, including heat exchangers and dehumidifiers, grew by 16.73% and 31.98% YoY, respectively, due to extreme weather conditions and increased consumer awareness [3] Financial Performance Summary - H1 2024 revenue decreased by 2.97% YoY to RMB 4.748 billion, while net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 2.21% YoY to RMB 1.236 billion [3] - Q2 2024 net profit margin improved to 28.03%, up 4.00 percentage points YoY and 5.04 percentage points QoQ [3] - The company's gross margin for energy storage inverters remained stable at 52.00% in H1 2024, slightly down from 54.96% in 2023 [3] Valuation and Forecast - The report revised the EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to RMB 4.57, RMB 5.82, and RMB 6.63, respectively, representing an increase of 29.8%, 25.4%, and 32.7% from previous estimates [3] - The P/E ratio for 2024-2026 is projected at 19.1x, 14.9x, and 13.1x, respectively [4] - The company's EV/EBITDA for 2024-2026 is forecasted at 15.5x, 12.2x, and 10.0x [4] Market Performance - The company's stock price has shown a 9.9% increase year-to-date, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 13.8 percentage points [1] - Over the past 12 months, the stock has gained 21% in absolute terms and 5.3% relative to the Shanghai Composite Index [1] Industry Outlook - The photovoltaic equipment sector is experiencing a recovery in demand, particularly in emerging markets, driven by factors such as power shortages, rising electricity prices, and policy support [3] - The global residential energy storage market continues to grow, supporting the company's energy storage battery pack business [3]