HANSOH PHARMA(03692) 交银国际证券·2024-08-29 04:41Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to the company with a target price of HKD 20.40, indicating a potential upside of 12% from the current price of HKD 18.22 [1][6]. Core Insights - The company's 1H24 revenue and profit exceeded market expectations, leading to an upward revision of the 2024-26 profit forecasts by 12-17% [1]. - The strong performance was driven by a 44% year-on-year revenue growth and a 111% increase in net profit, primarily due to the sales growth of the innovative drug Ameluz [1][2]. - The report highlights that the innovative drug revenue grew by 81%, increasing its share of total revenue from 61.8% in 1H23 to 77.4% in 1H24 [1]. - The company maintains guidance for double-digit growth in non-BD operating revenue for the full year [1]. Financial Forecast Changes - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been adjusted to RMB 12,637 million, RMB 13,265 million, and RMB 14,630 million respectively, reflecting increases of 2.7%, 2.7%, and 4.3% compared to previous estimates [3]. - Net profit forecasts for the same years have been revised to RMB 4,451 million, RMB 4,040 million, and RMB 4,690 million, showing increases of 11.5%, 15.6%, and 16.7% respectively [3]. - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable at around 90.5% for 2024, with slight variations in subsequent years [3]. Sales Performance - The oncology line revenue (excluding BD) grew by 24%, with the core product Ameluz expected to achieve over 20% sales growth for the year [2]. - The anti-infection and neurology lines saw revenue increases of 17% and 5% respectively, while the generic drug segment faced a decline of approximately 15% due to competitive pressures [2]. - The company anticipates the launch of several new products in the coming years, including Chitosan and additional indications for Ameluz and other innovative drugs [2].